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Post by Janet on Apr 20, 2004 20:12:19 GMT 1
Celebrations for Croatia tonight...
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Nick
Full Member
Posts: 93
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Post by Nick on Apr 21, 2004 11:09:32 GMT 1
Prso in great form again for Monaco or the fact that the UK has stopped blocking the EU application?
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Post by Marija on Apr 21, 2004 11:50:09 GMT 1
The second one IMO!
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Post by Graham - Bosmere on Apr 21, 2004 11:57:50 GMT 1
Janet,
What do you think are the positive things for Croatia joining the EU and what are the negative things. I have my own ideas, but they are not based on sound economic and social statistics, just a gut feeling.
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Mac
Junior Member
Posts: 25
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Post by Mac on Apr 21, 2004 18:43:37 GMT 1
If I may.... for one thing the Croats are going to see their properties jump in price in order to catch up with the rest of us. Good and bad I suppose. All over Ireland now where prices used to be obtainable before the Euro the average house price is rising to the €250,000 mark. hardly inspiring for the first buyer! In fact, I have read (and know buyers personally) that in some quarters Dublin is on a par with London! Even in Belfast where the prices were even lower just a few years ago the average price has reached astonishing levels. Small plots of land around town were practically given away five years ago. Now they ask figures in the millions On a more light-hearted issue, the Croats, like the Irish for years before them will also see a lot of money poured into their coffers for economic development etc. And if you are fortunate to be in the right company this will have tremendous advantages ie, road construction industry, public and private services, oh! and not to forget those wonderful and fully exploited educational programmes, back to work benefits, cross border and peace initiative programmes.... the list goes on. I'm not bitter just sorry I missed out Could go on forever but I'll pass on to the next one.
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Mac
Junior Member
Posts: 25
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Post by Mac on Apr 21, 2004 18:54:33 GMT 1
sorry, can't help myself...
As for EU grants, this is one area worth delving into. If you have any knowledge or just happen to be in the know and are patient as well as very persevering, the rewards can be fruitful to say the least.
For example, business start-ups, through EU schemes can pick-up handsome financial benefits just for showing up. Now put this onto a large industrial scale if you intedn to open up a factory in a deprived area and one can only imagine seeing the money fall from heaven - then in a few years time you shut up shop, make everyone unemployed again, and move on to the next socially deprived town!
A little personal insight there. But like I said if you are on the receiving end, good for you. If not, tough!
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Post by pacificstar on Apr 21, 2004 21:12:03 GMT 1
Hey Mac, are you in Ireland? How interesting I'm 1/2 Irish & 1/2 Croatian. I've visited Ireland 1st before the EU & once after. I saw how wonderfully the Irish where repairing their castles and improving their roads. I think the finiancial help will help Croatia. I think the best part of Ireland is the people and I'm going to Croatia this summer and hope to find the same hospitable reception.
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Post by Guesst on Apr 22, 2004 5:35:21 GMT 1
I anticipate a severe down shift in the real wages given the low productivity country, the overall price increase and inflow of cheap work force which will increase the supply of labor. Add to this many regulations regarding the employment policies which will require big re-structuring within the companies and related huge expenses which will further reduce the labor demand (employment).
Spending of the money for economic development by public or private entrepreneurs would be strictly regulated by the contracting regulations the country is adhering to within the EU - the hottest issue everywhere which decides who will benefit from the big contracts and where that very same money will be spend as to the acquiring the means of production.... and a million of other issues we could anticipate, each and every one requiring tremendous skills both on part of the government and public/private business firms. It will be quite a shock for the slow economy such as Croatian... with an outcome very different than in Ireland.
Ireland didn't suffer from the communist-style heritage, and had stronger & friendlier ties with own Diaspora when Ireland entered the EU. Next, Ireland took some time for herself to consolidate own independence and strengthen the internal institutions before entering the EU.... True?
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Mac
Junior Member
Posts: 25
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Post by Mac on Apr 22, 2004 15:23:40 GMT 1
Certainly some of the things you say are quite true about Ireland but as far as there being a strong skill or economic-based ground to which Ireland blossomed, you have totally underestimated the dire circumstances that Ireland suffered from - economically, financially, industrially..... the list goes on. Ireland was at one stage considered a third world country in Europe!! And I'm not talking about 200 years ago. Even today, some parts of Belfast have 80% unemployment. Okay, the north has had many other problems to deal with (and still has but too much to go into now) but there is a very positive attitude to embracing the EU. So, its not really a case being in a good start position, if there's a will there's a way - to put it bluntly.
As for Cro being a slow eco. There are still some islands around Irlenad without electricity! Some of my friends (25-30yrs) have never even worked a computer. We don't have a motorway that stretches from west to east or north to south (all the way I mean) although other ones are being developed very rapidly. So, my point is that the population while they will find it all as a shock I'm sure they will adopt it far quicker than you think, otherwise they will findthemselves in a very lonely situation.
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Post by Guess on Apr 22, 2004 16:35:05 GMT 1
No, I'm not underestimating the economic circumstances previous to the rise of Celtic Tiger, having read a bit about famine etc. But differentiating on those circumastances that enabled Ireland to rise when she decided to explore the opportunities within the EU: I thought it to be "foreign capital" mostly provided by the Irish Diaspora ("domestic 'foreign capital'")
Ireland is in disadvantage for all the causes you're listing, no objection to that, but she's been able to profit when the opportunities showed up. Apart from possible similarities in having the factions which cooperated with the 'enemy side,' the difference is that you had no communism ingrained in your economic policies to make you apt to the lawful plunder, something that wasted the greatest opportunities that were there for Croatia even w/o the EU (there was an incredible foreign exchange inflow up to the mid 1990s, but some believed it to be so vernacular that no theft could ever exhaust it....well it eventually did.)
It follows from this that Ireland had a greater degree of the internal unity and shared compassion, and no intituted/inherited mechanisms for legal plunder. The market economy could flurish as the opportunities opened.
So the Irish Diaspora could play its role when time came and it actually did; in Croatia, things were opposite, the Diaspora was tricked and discouraged, which may be due to the fact that - again for the same reason (the communist heritage) - it has been traditionally treated as the 'enemy' which reflected in the policies of both previous and even this Croatian government.
Even without that factor which neutralized many opportunities Croatia did have - and if we agree that Ireland's success was due to that "domestic foreign capital'" from the Irish Diaspora - Croatia is in disadvantage as her Diaspora is not that strong as the Irish.
The Irish Diaspora has been that strong that could decide even on the things such as the neutrality of Ireland in the WWII. From the bits I read, it would had drawn the US much earlier in the war precisely because of the Irish Americans, such was its influence, and history would have been very different from that point on; also, that move would had caused the internal disunity as the British would had been involved on the same side...
There are also many recent testimonies of its strenght of course.
I was amazed by the level of consciences about the need for the internal unity that existed/lasted in Ireland.... Something that was discouraged in Croatia, again for the same reason (the communist heritage which should have been dropped off by now... because there are deeper and more stable grounds to build on which existed previous to the communist era)
Therefore, I maintain that we can't expect the same outcome since the main driving forces that brought about the success of Ireland are so different from those in Croatia. Which doesn't mean that the Irish example cannot be followed, on the contrary, it gives the 'formula' of the success if carefully studied.
If the adaptation of the people themselves were a key issue here, I'd totally agree with you as we do learn quickly... which is proven in the war time and immediately after the war.... But that alone won't make the Croats less lonely or more employed in the EU. Correct me if I'm wrong.
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Post by Ivy on Apr 23, 2004 8:47:23 GMT 1
about the Irish-wannabes www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?story_id=2597266"By 1998 American multinationals accounted for 70% of Irish exports. ... Ireland had some advantages—an English-speaking population and close ties to the United States—that the new members of the EU cannot replicate. "
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Mac
Junior Member
Posts: 25
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Post by Mac on Apr 23, 2004 12:48:59 GMT 1
I'll keep quiet from here
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Post by Guesst on Apr 25, 2004 21:03:24 GMT 1
Oh please don't, feel free to correct anything!
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Mac
Junior Member
Posts: 25
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Post by Mac on Apr 26, 2004 9:59:05 GMT 1
Well, okay....
what do you mean when you refer to there being no unity in Croatia and that due to its Communist past, it will be diffiult for the people to adjust??
... I just seem to get the picture that everyone is therefore out for themselves in an extremely selfish and disruptive way.
Re the corruption allegations: Ireland has suffered very badly with this for many years and it has only come to light recently - there are 'many' court cases on-going into bribery among politicans, even rumours about the current Taoiseach (prime min) involved, not to mention the courts verdict of the previous Taoiseach who was found guilty. Then there are the cases involving police corruption..... so, not exactly a model refer in which to boast about either. Of course, this is not much talked about outside Ireland but its actually an endemic part of Irish history.
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Post by Guesst on Apr 26, 2004 13:32:07 GMT 1
It's been a generally accepted fact that the communism nurished factional struggles on ethnic, ideological, religious and ideological grounds. Disunity. It was especially expressed in Yugoslav communism where this mentality served Belgrade for 50 years to remove the opponents of Greater Serbia and rip off other Republics. And especially the Croatian emigration was treated with contempt or suspition in such a design. Though the executors of this agenda were mostly the Serbs - a minority (~12%) which held more than half of all key admin positions (www.jblaskovich.com in Antomy of Deceit, p. 58) - this mentality of disunity countinued to be practiced within the Croatian government circles even after the communist era. There was the other non-Serb half of such obstructive rulers in Croatia -- but we're still speaking of the selfish/desruptive influences of a minority. However that minority often dominated post-communist Croatia directly or 'behind the scene', since they held and remained in control of the Croatian economic infrastrastracture; having already amassed the wealth by exploiting it before the Croatian independence. Due to this, we've seen the unity necessary to affect the policies which would be beneficial to everyone only when the majority of the people were faced with extreme dangers, and in such times it's usually too late to find a painless remedy, as we know all too well from the events of 1991-1995. Even in such times the unity of Croatia was disturbed by those factional elements of the old regime. So many Croatian real assets that were pured into Croatia in the 1990s was wasted, to which I hinted in previous post. So the people can adjust, but to what? They need a healthy guidance which they don't have in sufficient measire so far, and still depend more on luck, or uncritical obedience to the people in power, than on their own skill... . Concerning the corruption, it may be present everywhere, but you didn't have a privatization's scheme so that the corruption explode as in a post-communist country. And again, the selfish/detrimental minority group I'm talking about above profited the most from privatization as well.. Hope I made my points a bit clearer. However, please make sure I don't mean to sound anti-Irish here! I'm really really not. Slan leat!
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