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Post by dugodude on Sept 12, 2010 10:08:15 GMT 1
"A loss thats where it would end up, there is 3 outcomes when it comes to soccer, win lose or draw, that means bookie has 2 outcomes in his favor where as you have only one, so he has double the chance of winning the bet, so he has 66% and you have 33%, and because home teams are priced lower than their real value in the long run over the course of a season the odds in his favor just keep mounting up and up, ok you might get a flukey profit a few of the weeks, but you will never gain."
That is a flawed argument, Gobs (even though the final result you predict might well be correct, but that would be because the bookies adjust the odds).
You are implying that the chances of a draw, home win or away win are equal.
This is patently not so. Football is not like the roll of dice, since the top teams win the vast majority of matches at home, and win a majority away too.
At the other end of things, the bottom teams lose many at home, and lose the vast majority away.
If a bookie gave you odds of 2;1 against MU winning at home (ie an equal chance of win, lose or draw,) you'd be hugely in pocket by the end of the season if backed MU to win every game. DD
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Post by upthevilla on Sept 15, 2010 8:39:24 GMT 1
Weekend - 11.09.10 And TC scores a whopping 7.But i think the prediction of the day was MG was an away win for Blackpool at Newcastle TOTALCROATIA..7 PRK………………5 GOBREA ………. 4 RIBARIC…….….4 KES ………… …. 4 MADGOLFER….. 4 GARY………….. 3 UPTHEVILLA …3 GMH…………….. 0 The leader Board PRK……………… 20 GARY………….. 19 UPTHEVILLA …19 GOBREA ………. 18 RIBARIC…….…. 17 KES ………… …. 16 TOTALCROATIA..13 MADGOLFER….. 9 GMH…………….. 4 Highest score for a weekend TOTALCROATIA = 7 - 11.09.10
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Post by Ribaric on Sept 15, 2010 9:17:23 GMT 1
MG's method.......
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Post by Madgolfer on Sept 15, 2010 14:11:31 GMT 1
Rib thats way too scientific mate.
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Post by Ribaric on Sept 15, 2010 18:45:58 GMT 1
Before friends and family arrive en-mass for the weekend's events, here are the predictions of the Ribaric committee.
Saturday, 18 September 2010
HOME - Stoke v West Ham - Pullis pulls another rabbit from hat, Hammers in disarray (yippee!). DRAW - Aston Villa v Bolton - Houlier's hopes dashed. DRAW - Blackburn v Fulham - 2 teams, 22 players, no goals. HOME - Everton v Newcastle - Moyes is too good to be down there. HOME - Tottenham v Wolverhampton - A tough call, Spurs should but that's when they screw up. DRAW - West Brom v Birmingham - Albion not good enough, neither are Brum. AWAY - Sunderland v Arsenal - Gunners too strong in every department.
Sunday, 19 September 2010
HOME - Man Utd v Liverpool - I have a nasty feeling Manure will commit suicide again, but maybe not. Who knows? DRAW - Wigan v Man City - City should win, but proably won't. Chequebook needed again. HOME - Chelsea v Blackpool - Anything except a home win would be a "famous" result.
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Post by Madgolfer on Sept 16, 2010 19:37:06 GMT 1
Also getting in early as off to the Varazdin wedding of the year. OK magazine paid for 500kn for the sole rights I understand. ;D Anyway, continuing my astonishingly unsuccessful "horses-arse" prediction method..... Saturday, 18 September 2010Stoke v West Ham - AWAY Aston Villa v Bolton - HOME Blackburn v Fulham - AWAY Everton v Newcastle - DRAW Tottenham v Wolverhampton - HOME OBVIOUSLY ;D West Brom v Birmingham - DRAW Sunderland v Arsenal - AWAY UNFORTUNATELY Sunday, 19 September 2010Man Utd v Liverpool - AWAY. ....what a result that would be Wigan v Man City - AWAY Chelsea v Blackpool - HOME
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Post by upthevilla on Sept 17, 2010 12:34:29 GMT 1
Saturday
Stoke v West Ham, Home win Aston Villa v Bolton, Home win Blackburn v Fulham, Home win Everton v Newcastle, Draw Tottenham v Wolves Home win West Brom v Birmingham Home win Sunderland v Arsenal Away win SUNDAY Man Utd v Liverpool Home win Wigan v Man City Draw Chelsea v Blackpool Home win
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Post by gary on Sept 17, 2010 13:13:49 GMT 1
Saturday
Stoke v West Ham, Home win Aston Villa v Bolton, Home win Blackburn v Fulham, Home win Everton v Newcastle, Draw Tottenham v Wolves Home win West Brom v Birmingham Draw Sunderland v Arsenal Draw
SUNDAY Man Utd v Liverpool Home win
Wigan v Man City Away win
Chelsea v Blackpool Home win
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Post by totalcroatia on Sept 17, 2010 13:18:24 GMT 1
Adrian Chiles is from Hvar? I need to move...
Saturday
Stoke v West Ham, Home win Aston Villa v Bolton, Home win Blackburn v Fulham, Draw Everton v Newcastle, Home win Tottenham v Wolves Home win West Brom v Birmingham Draw Sunderland v Arsenal Draw
SUNDAY Man Utd v Liverpool Draw
Wigan v Man City Draw
Chelsea v Blackpool Home win
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Post by kesterj on Sept 17, 2010 19:21:52 GMT 1
"Adrian Chiles is from Hvar? I need to move..."
Whose Adrian Chiles? (seriously)
Saturday
Stoke v West Ham - HOME win Aston Villa v Bolton - HOME win Blackburn v Fulham - HOME win Everton v Newcastle - HOME win Tottenham v Wolves - HOME win West Brom v Birmingham - DRAW Sunderland v Arsenal - DRAW
SUNDAY Man Utd v Liverpool - HOME win
Wigan v Man City - DRAW
Chelsea v Blackpool - HOME win (though I'd love to be very wrong on this one.)
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Post by totalcroatia on Sept 17, 2010 19:33:31 GMT 1
Hi Kesterj
TV presenter - check the 10 famous Croats thread on the Living section.
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Post by prkbrk on Sept 18, 2010 7:38:40 GMT 1
After 'annoying' the hell out of the Mancs (and Rooney with some choice songs!) on Tuesday night, added to a nice 'refueling' pit stop at the DW stadium in Wigan beforehand, I see I am top of the league! -a bit like the heady heights of Blackpool on Day One, a temporary thing no doubt ;D
Saturday
Stoke v West Ham, DRAW Aston Villa v Bolton, HOME (they have to win sometime - even if I do hold a grudge against them for failing to beat Rapid Vienna, thus denying Jelavic the right to play in the CL) Blackburn v Fulham, DRAW Everton v Newcastle, HOME Tottenham v Wolves HOME West Brom v Birmingham AWAY Sunderland v Arsenal AWAY
SUNDAY Man Utd v Liverpool DRAW
Wigan v Man City AWAY
Chelsea v Blackpool HOME
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Post by gobrea on Sept 18, 2010 12:29:27 GMT 1
Stoke v West Ham - HOME win Aston Villa v Bolton - HOME win Blackburn v Fulham - DRAW win Everton v Newcastle - HOME win Tottenham v Wolves - HOME win West Brom v Birmingham - AWAY Sunderland v Arsenal - AWAY
SUNDAY Man Utd v Liverpool - HOME win
Wigan v Man City - AWAY
Chelsea v Blackpool - HOME win
dugo just a quick look for chelsea to win and its 1/10 for a win, so you put on $10 to win 1. the value represented does not justify a bet on this match, unless your Roman, then you can have a million or two on, but if you are an average punter, its not worth the risk, and over the course of a season, madness, it would take 11 win games to get into profit! otherwise everybody would be doing it, which brings down prices even more,
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Post by upthevilla on Sept 20, 2010 10:37:47 GMT 1
Weekend 18.09.10 GARY………….. 5 GOBREA ………. 5 PRK………………5 RIBARIC…….….5 TOTALCROATIA..4 KES ………… …. 4 UPTHEVILLA …4 MADGOLFER…..3 GMH…………….. 0 The leader Board PRK……………… 25 GARY………….. 24 GOBREA ………. 23 UPTHEVILLA …23 RIBARIC…….…. 22 KES ………… …. 20 TOTALCROATIA..17 MADGOLFER….. 12 GMH…………….. 4 Highest score for a weekend TOTALCROATIA = 7 - 11.09.10
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Post by kesterj on Sept 23, 2010 20:14:30 GMT 1
Got to start this this week's selection.
Thanks for the explanation re Adrian Chiles, Tots.
SATURDAY Sept 25.
Manchester City v Chelsea - AWAY Birm'am City v Wigan Athletic - HOME Blackpool v Blackburn Rovers - DRAW W Ham United v Tottenham H'pur - DRAW Arsenal v West Brom - HOME Liverpool v Sunderland - DRAW Fulham v Everton - DRAW
SUNDAY Bolton Wanderers v Man United - AWAY Wolverhampton W'derers v Aston Villa - DRAW Newcastle United v Stoke City - HOME
I'm not doing well this season, we'll have to see if I can start hitting some form. Kesterj
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