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Post by Ribaric on Jan 23, 2015 21:50:57 GMT 1
Some people are forecasting parity between Euro and Dollar which would mean the Euro/pound back to €1.50! Keep your money in dollars. Spoken like a true Trotskyite
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Post by velebit on Jan 25, 2015 20:12:31 GMT 1
What do people think? Is it worth exchanging pounds for kuna given current exchange rate or is it worth holding off for future better rate All opinions welcome?
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Post by Ribaric on Jan 25, 2015 20:54:30 GMT 1
If you found 100 FX experts, you'd probably get 99 different answers. Me? I'll follow my long held policy of not owning kuna. I can't see how or why it will increase in value against any currency, at least for now.
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Post by Ribaric on Jan 26, 2015 9:17:10 GMT 1
10.35 today. How far will it go?
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Post by Ribaric on Feb 6, 2015 17:53:54 GMT 1
10.38 today at ukforex. and 1.34 Euros. Time to buy?
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Post by Ribaric on Feb 19, 2015 20:52:35 GMT 1
10.43 at ukforex.
I saw a guy selling big bags of potatoes at our market today ... in Euros.
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Post by Ribaric on Mar 4, 2015 13:32:09 GMT 1
March 4th 2015. Still the kuna continues to sink against sterling, the dollar, even against the Euro. Today's google rate is £1 = 10.56 kuna, yet another record high in recent years (see image). This is bad news for Croatian wage earners and savers but good news for foreign investors.
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Post by dugodude on Mar 6, 2015 20:52:13 GMT 1
March 4th 2015. Still the kuna continues to sink against sterling, the dollar, even against the Euro. Today's google rate is £1 = 10.56 kuna, yet another record high in recent years (see image). This is bad news for Croatian wage earners and savers but good news for foreign investors. "This is bad news for Croatian wage earners" Are you sure? for some businesses, it's possibly a lifeline for survival. Those that were about to go under because of the prohibitive price of their goods for export. And for some, it may mean new business, because, at last, they may now be competitive. (Of course, the blood-sucking authorities/banks etc, in their different guises, may soon wipe out even this marginal advantage.) So the kuna has sunk from £1 = 8 in 2010 to £1 - 10.56 in 2015. that is, in my head, about 30-35% ? If you look back to a similar economic thread in 2010, I predicted a (very rough) devaluation of 50% for the kuna, the rebound caused by the eventual failure of excessive efforts to keep the kuna fixed to the euro - this in a country where inherent bureaucracy, bloody-mindedness and criminal corruption by far too many means that honest business folk (and there are those who try) mean the country has no chance of matching the productivity improvements achieved by even the under-achieving eurozone. And if you can't match those improvements, sooner or later, you are going to have to devalue. Checking back, I see Carol wrote about similar issues, but with a different approach. Now the devaluation against the pound in these times is magnified by the current strength of sterling - I'm sure the fall against the euro is far less, about half that, I'd guess. but it doesn't ultimately matter. talk about not learning from history. You cannot tie a currency of one monetary/financial/political/social jurisdiction with the currency of another and expect it to work long term. except by luck. Yet central bankers and economists are paid obscene amounts on a regular basis to argue for exactly these policies. In fact, Croatia is lucky in one sense in that the euro was created. Had Germany kept the Mark, and Croatia tied in to that, the ultimate damage would be even worse, because without the dead weight of the economies of southern Europe, the Mark today would be higher, relatively, than sterling. DD
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Post by Ribaric on Mar 7, 2015 9:02:46 GMT 1
Good thinking DD. Of course, you are right about Croatian exports becoming more competitive against sterling and the dollar but, sadly, movement against the Euro is roughly from 7.2 kuna to 7.6 over the same period. Being tied to the euro, however loosely, hasn't helped exporters much. The deepest problem, ISTM, is that Croatia's export industry has been dismantled over the years and now there is no export - save tourism. I fear that should a finance minister ever arrive who will float the kuna, the pain of that will not be offset by booming exports other than foreign manufacturers who may arrive to do their dirty work here.
Devaluation would put thousands on the streets, I can't see it happening through choice but if it becomes necessary, things will get very ugly very quickly.
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Post by fidobsa on Mar 7, 2015 16:05:45 GMT 1
It should mean that locally produced food and goods are more competitive compared to imports so it could help some small businesses. I believe Croatia produces about 60% of it's own natural gas but I suppose vehicle fuel will go up in price and that always makes everything that is distributed by road more expensive.
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Post by trotskyite on Mar 11, 2015 18:14:27 GMT 1
I was wrong: the euro is going to go below the dollar.
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