Post by Dimnjacar on Oct 12, 2004 12:54:37 GMT 1
CROATS' EU ENTHUSIASM COOLS
The drive to get to Brussels faces a new obstacle - the fact that most
Croats no longer seem interested.
By Drago Hedl in Osijek
If a referendum on Croatian accession to the European Union were to be held
tomorrow, the proposal would be rejected.
That was the stark conclusion drawn from the latest public opinion poll by
the Puls Agency, which showed only 49 per cent of Croats now favoured
joining the EU.
The result has shocked official Zagreb, which counts its success in
pursuing
negotiations as one of its greatest political triumphs.
Had the survey been conducted a week later, rather than early in October,
the result might have been even more alarming.
The recent announcement from Brussels that negotiations with new candidate
states (which Zagreb hopes to launch next year) may be suspended at any
time
has only strengthened Croatian doubts about the wisdom of seeking a seat in
Brussels.
What the EU said was that its negotiations with Bulgaria, Romania and
Croatia on joining the 25-member association may be suspended if any of the
potential members - Croatia included - violates any of the EU's standards
on
freedom, democracy and human rights protection.
This could affect Zagreb, as the criteria under which Brussels can suspend
these negotiations are very broadly defined, a foreign ministry official
told IWPR.
"This will create the impression that whenever it feels like it, Brussels
can exert pressure on us, and, if we don't let up, find an excuse to
suspend
negotiations," the official said, "so all the sacrifices made so the
country
could be admitted into the EU could be in vain."
Foreign Minister Miomir Zuzul played down the importance of the warning on
October 6, when Zagreb received the news.
"One party can always suspend the negotiations if it is dissatisfied with
them," he told Croatian television. "That's why I see nothing unusual in
the
clause on the possible suspension of negotiations with the European Union."
Analysts say that Zuzul wanted to calm public opinion and prevent the
growth
of a spirit of Euro-scepticism, which has already spread across the
country.
Over the past three years, since popular attitudes towards the EU have been
measured, the percentage of supporters of membership has constantly
decreased.
In July 2000, when the first poll on the issue was conducted, just over 77
per cent supported membership with the EU. Support peaked in July 2002,
rising to 79.4 per cent. Since then, it has been downhill all the way. By
June this year, only 51 per cent still supported the government's drive for
EU membership. In October, for the first time, it dipped below the vital
50-per-cent threshold.
Marija Pecinovic-Buric, of the ministry of European integration, told IWPR
that two main reasons accounted for why backing for EU membership had
fallen
so sharply.
One was an accession protocol regulating the status of agriculture, and the
other was Croatia's decision not to enforce its declared fishing zone off
the Adriatic on its EU member neighbours, Italy and Slovenia.
"A part of the Croatian public saw this as pressure on Zagreb," she said.
"These issues have been politicised and they have resulted in people
fearing
that, as negotiations progress, there will be more such pressure."
The farming lobby is especially opposed to the idea of EU membership, as
they fear the impact of foreign competition through an influx of cheap
agricultural products from Brussels.
"The Croatian farmer still isn't ready for the European Union," Antun
Laslo,
of the Slavonian Farmers' Association, told IWPR.
Laslo, head of a farming league from Croatia agricultural heartland, said
the change was threatening to come too fast for his members to cope.
"In the sot era, Croatia created large state agricultural
conglomerates, so our farmers do not have the same traditions as those in
Western Europe," he said.
"Along with this, the state is impoverished and cannot subsidise
agricultural production, which is why our products are expensive. We need
at
least 10 more years to adjust; joining the EU before this would be a
disaster for farmers."
The country's rightist prime minister, Ivo Sanader, whose strategic
priority
is EU accession by 2007, insists the quiet decline in popular enthusiasm is
manageable.
"Croatia is merely following in the footsteps of the countries that have
already joined the EU," Sanader said recently.
"Once the accession process begins, the people will have to face the fact
that we need to negotiate difficult issues. But the percentage of support
is
still such that we believe we will manage to explain to people that it's
better to be in the EU than outside."
But not all politicians agree with this trend. Tonino Picula, former
foreign
minister in the leftist government of Ivica Racan, which lost power last
October, told IWPR that pro-EU enthusiasm in the countries that joined this
May dropped only after negotiations had started.
In Croatia, a dramatic fall had occurred much earlier, well before the
launch of formal accession talks, he said. Picula went to claim that this
was now denting the government's credibility as a whole.
"Sanader promised lower taxes, a better standard of living, faster creation
of jobs, lower foreign debts - yet none of this has happened, even though
it's been a year since he took up office," he said. "The people who voted
for his Croatian Democratic Union are now disappointed and this
disappointment reflects on their attitude towards accession to the EU."
Recent polls suggest Sanader's popularity is, in fact, ebbing. The Puls
survey in early October said 9.7 per cent of respondents fully backed
Sanader's government while another 34.4 "mainly supported" it.
The two figures combined suggest a level of support of in the low 40s,
marking the first time since the HDZ came to power that support for its
government had fallen below 50 per cent.
Political analysts in Zagreb agree the sharp fall in support for EU
membership is linked to disappointment with government policies.
Analysts say many citizens equate the government's poor economic results -
high unemployment, low economic growth and poor exports - with its efforts
to lead the country into the EU. If the people felt their standard of
living
improved, support to the EU would increase, the analysts say.