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Post by ray51 on Dec 9, 2011 20:34:36 GMT 1
Or , as someone else put it , earlier today : Economics is neither exact , nor a rocket science ; if it were either , then the Germans and French would probably understand it much better !
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Post by Kaskader on Dec 9, 2011 20:53:55 GMT 1
Yet, who is printing money? French and Germans, or UK and US? Is that about understanding Economics?
One nation who might have a view on that - NIPPON.
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Post by ray51 on Dec 9, 2011 21:56:42 GMT 1
Sadly , since those crazy bubbles of the 70's and 80's , Nippon ( a truly lovely place , I'm told ! ) is in a deflationary , ever button-re-inspecting cycle , with 0,1% interest rates , the world's worst-performing major stock excange and so on ; all this with ever-ageing population and myriad other problems , not to start on earthquakes , tsunamis , nuclear issues or beeing sqeezed out - pricewise and/or value-for-money-wise - of the too-many markets , by the likes of Korea , China etc . But all that has little relevance to Croatia and ( many ! ) other problem-children of the EU , as A.D. 2011 draws to its belated end .
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Post by ray51 on Dec 10, 2011 0:27:12 GMT 1
You have gotta be joking ; a day of voluntary surrender to unilateral Diktats from Berlin , executed by proxy via Bruxelles ?
If that's a "big day" for any "independent"country , I hate to think what a small one might yet be...
The NAFTA ( between USA , Canada & Mexico ) makes so much more sense ; as does the EEA ! Time will tell , no worries !
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Post by francis on Dec 10, 2011 12:19:58 GMT 1
There coming in , when the EU is changing the rules, That may not be a bad thing for a Country like Croatia, Living, here i didnt see any EU party, what i did see was the people saying it must be better than what they have, which none of us can say for sure, Croatia will be going with Germany , but then, they have never really left, have they .?
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Post by Kaskader on Dec 10, 2011 12:20:43 GMT 1
ray51..how do you see Croatia without entering EU? Realistically..
It would help me understand your Euroscepticism if I understand your alternative view...
Personally I think Croatia's entry into the EU is a "good" thing, not because it is a good thing, but because it is better of the two evils.
That is not to say that the s**t will not hit the fan in the future..in either case.
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Post by ray51 on Dec 10, 2011 14:01:22 GMT 1
Be it as whoever sees it ...tolerance and mutual respect are the qualities not always dear to the hearts of Balkans' peoples ... I thought I post a little but realistic example of a scenario , according to the nonsense the 20-odd EU-member countries signed to yesterday ( well : not the countries or their peoples really , but rather their well-overpaid and pampered representatives in Bruxelles , who have much to lose , in cash and favours , if they were to disagree with the hints from Berlin - check recent Papandreu/Berlusconi cases ! - and BTW , where else : if you disagree with the powers that rule in Bruxelles , not only do you lose your job there and the munificent perks that went with it , but you also agree to lose your pension - a Fact ! and you thought 3rd Reich was cruel , at times , yes ? ) ; so here it goes e.g. Milan Bandic announces that Zagreb , now EU's 28th capital city finally also deserves an undergrond transport system , like some other capitals have had and used for a century or thereabouts ; even if the tendering is acceptable and freer from bribery and corruption and underhand dealings ( than the INA/Pliva/HAC histories ? ) , this will still end up costing XYZ millions of Euros , for a major public project that won't/can't break even for at least 20-30 years , if indeed , ever at all ? Well , from now on : this will first have to be approved or vetoed by Merkel's/Schauble's brigades of pen-pushers , after which Bruxelles will , most likely , advise Josipovic and/or Milanovic that HR can't afford it and Basta ! In such a way , those who now have , will continue to improve their lot/s , whereas those who don't have , will find it ever more difficult to ever get anywhere ( on credit , even if it were responsible borrowing/s ) . Some might call it "progress" ( even Vaclav Klaus disagrees ) , if the same rules were in force years ago , much of the world's infrastructure would not yet exist .
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Post by Kaskader on Dec 10, 2011 14:06:44 GMT 1
Okay, but this is still scenario within EU...while I most kindly asked you for your view of Croatia remaining outside EU in the next 20+ years.
How do you see Croatia economically and geo-politically remaining outside EU? Will we be richer, poorer, will we have more peace, less peace, wars, prosperity, nationalism, gay persecution..I don't know, just examples...
I appreciate your scenarios and views on EU membership...but since you are against it, how do you see alternative for Croatia?
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Post by BrankoL on Dec 10, 2011 14:14:14 GMT 1
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Post by ray51 on Dec 10, 2011 16:10:39 GMT 1
Okay, but this is still scenario within EU...while I most kindly asked you for your view of Croatia remaining outside EU in the next 20+ years. How do you see Croatia economically and geo-politically remaining outside EU? Will we be richer, poorer, will we have more peace, less peace, wars, prosperity, nationalism, gay persecution..I don't know, just examples... I appreciate your scenarios and views on EU membership...but since you are against it, how do you see alternative for Croatia? This is a complex multi-question , I'd better give some more thought to a correct response , right ? Usually , my comments on the EU are ( at least : partially ) the result of 12-years' residence in Bruxelles and consequent exposure to disgusting excesses of Euro-cratiae . I also respect the achievements of certain nations ( peoples ? ) in various fields and am well AuFait with various aspects of life in Austria , SLOvenia , Germany , BeNeLux , France etc . From business and social exposure , I also know any number of "Skandies" ( Swedes , Finns , Danish , Norwegians ...) and their views re : the EU . I expect to be contributing more on this theme , in due course and to possibly modify this post ; my biggest gripe with the EU of recent years ( quite aside from nepotism , corruption, waste , arrogance etc. ) is that van Rompuy and Co. are at work destroying national identities , wanting everyone to become simply a grey technocratic EUropean ( like van Rompuy IS ) , much in the same way as all citizens of USA are , what German media call : USAmerikaner ! But we are an old and multi-cultural continent , not a melting pot of USA/Canada/Oz style . If I view the standards of certain countries ( which I'm familiar with , try me on Flanders , SE England , good chunks of France , Germany from Aachen to Munich etc...) I fail to see just where the EU-membership ( or indeed : non-membership , e.g. for Switzerland , Norway...) made very much difference to their standing , civilisation , healthcare , general well-being etc . Sure , in the early years , there were generous handouts and money-transfers , from the affluent North to the lagging South ; Spain and Portugal got the road-infrastucture they never could have dreamt of , courtesy mainly of German, British , Dutch and French tax-payers and similar examples can be found and quoted for quite a few countries and in quite a few interesting fields . Greece chose to throw the money she did not have at "public services" and pensions ( much like Croatia , anyway ! ). And so on ! ( All : very popular ! ) Alas , the late-comers were not so lucky and also , much of what was given to the laggard countries in Good Faith eventually still reverted to that old saying about giving one the fish , or rather teaching one to fish , I seem to think . So much so that Portugal now passed the fresh legislation to ( excessively ) charge the tolls for usage of roads which were , strictly speaking : donated to her , by the peoples of the EU ! So now the foreigners can pay & pay again if they are to drive the same roads they effectively donated , while the locals get hefty discounts ! Some "austerity" , some "financial discipline" ? My next thought is that the all-pervading som and elitism , and cancer-like unchecked growth of bureaucracy and "public service" and benefits' culture , will be the death-knell of EUrope . Much as the U.K. appears to be in a most serios decline ( as is widely reported , daily ) so the same holds true for most of the continent now ( but not anywhere near as widely reported , as the Germans and the-losing-French would have none of it ! Bad for morale and pokes fun at their massive propaganda to the contrary ! ) . From Croatia's standpoint , now : Turkey has been upset for years about being denied accession and so ? They manage quite well , of lately , it seems , all their failed EU-membership tries : forgotten and notwithstanding . No point in comparing Croatia with some much luckier , much-more affluent and civilised non-EU independents...( vidjela zhaba da konja potkivaju ? ) ; - then again , when they asked Gary Player , the South African golfer and the winner of the US Open , why & how does he get so lucky , his reply was something like : The harder I practice , the luckier I get ! I don't think such attitudes have become common in most of southern EU-nations ? Why should it be any different with Croatia now ? What exactly should change or is likely to make any significant difference from this moment on ( except the irretrievable loss of sovereignty !? ) ? Looking at all the nearest EU-member neighbours , Italy/Austria/Slovenianad Hungary , they are all what they are and pretty much as they have been , would have been or might have been , with or without the EU , when all is said and done . The EU-patent which makes a Sicilian into a Dutchman has not yet been invented , ditto with creating a Swede out of a Cypriot ; in my best opinion , the EU was quite good vehicle to impose and regulate certain standards and behaviours , but that point has long ago been passed and nowadays the EU is a self-serving ever-multiplying , ever-more-expensive house of cards , which many restrained members pay only lip service to .
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Post by Kaskader on Dec 10, 2011 16:22:36 GMT 1
Thanks Ray...but, but, but, you are still on about EU....
I do not know how to ask you a question in different way as it seem to me you are not understanding my question...as I cannot see an answer.
Let me try again, forget about EU...explain to me your vision of Croatia if not joining EU. Or are you really only saying that Croatia will stay the same as it is now, no change except giving up sovereignty?
There is no greater risk of regional nationalism, corruption, conflicts if we stay out?
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Post by ray51 on Dec 11, 2011 10:55:38 GMT 1
Kaskader : I wrote a detailed if lengthy reply , as best I thought I could answer the question/s ; but while checking the spelling ( TippFehler ! ) , the WiFi crashed or the Explorer went bust or some other technological marvel disappointed again - so the whole opus was lost , at about 19.45 yesterday . An abridged version follows : Vaclav Klaus is not shy to state in his public speaches that it would be no disaster and no problem , if Czech Republic decided to leave the EU ( the ruling elites in Brux hate any such hints and ignore him alltogether ) . He points out to the peaceful and orderly break-up of former Czechoslovakia , how they continued with the Korunas and how wise it was to decline membership , to which they were invited , of the EUro-currency club , already all those years ago . Historia Magistra Vitae Est and it repeats itself , even with certain long and painful hiccups , like the Czechs' prolongued slavery during the days of being effectively a Russian colony . But , since the Wall fell , they have done themselves proud again , good on them ! Then again , the cynics amongs us might say : Easy for him to talk , the Czechs did not beg and plead for 10 years , to get permission to join , on whichever terms Bruxelles deigns to insist on ! - I don't think Croatia's membership ( or not ) of EU has any bearing on conflicts in the region ; early next year Serbia will get the green light to start negotiations anyway and perpetual enlargement is the Holy Grail of EU . - Corruption is widespread , accepted , systemic and endemic in Croatia's case ; EU rules might improve that somewhat , perhaps - or : not ? Much depends on IF and how the rules and regulations and legislation are observed , rigorously applied , controlled AND also seen to be applied , controlled and enforced . N.B. Corruption also remains huge in Greece , Portugal , Spain , Cyprus , Italy , Belgium , Austria ( all long-standing EU-members ! ) and in some newer members ( Rumania , Bulgaria , Hungary , Lithuania ) but is known to be very much less prevalent in NZ , Canada, Norway , Iceland , Switzerland , Australia ( all of them : non-members ! ) - now , conclude from this , what you will ! - As regards nationalism , Croats are very much more nationalistic than e.g. Dutch , Germans , Belgians , northern Italians...how and why should that change , EU or not ? ( Much as van Rompuy would wish to do away with any simbols of nation-states , such as flags , national anthems , insigniae etc. ! ) At the same time , one can almost smell the strong need the Croats have to be accepted ( i.e. for reasons other than footie ! ) , to "belong somewhere" - over too-many years , too many generations got used to be ruled by one empire , or another , have a foreign king imposed upon them , or to live in a puppet-state of 3rd Reich , then to be part of a federation of dissimilar peoples , with main powers centralised outside HR ...old habits die hard or what was it about dogs and teaching them new tricks ? Quite opposite to many other states , with long traditions of going the distance alone ! - I don't think the Referendum ( if held ) can fail to end in resounding "YES" ( with a little help from Bruxelles first ? ) ; to the best of my knowledge , most Croats know too little about the pros and cons of the EU , or can't be bothered or are still gullible enough to naively believe that EU will bring them a significant improvement to prevailing economic circumstances . The more things "change" the more they remain the same , as many EU-members have discovered and re-learned . - If Croats really wanted to change , membership of the EU would be of academic interest only and perhaps they might also conclude that membership is not really worth new costs , obligations , taxation , bowing to Berlin's/Bruxelles orders and diktats and many other complications ; in some years down this road , Croatia may yet have to become a net cash contributor , to benefit even less-developed new arrivals to the dubious EU-club ( Moldova , Montenegro , FYR Macedonia , Albania , Kosovo , Serbia...) . - An informed , serious and honest Cost vs. Benefit analysis is strongly indicated , IMHO . The above briefly offers some of my views on the points you mentioned , Cheers and Best of Luck , R.
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Post by Kaskader on Dec 11, 2011 22:33:16 GMT 1
Excellent analysis Ray, thank you for your time and effort as always. My view is simply given the fact that all other Balkan countries, (Serbia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Albania, etc) do want to, and will eventually join EU, I simply do not see Croatia as the next Switzerland..and therefore we, actually, do not have a realistic choice, but to join. Secondly, let's see what will isolation bring to the UK, after Cameron's performance last week. Thirdly, just an hour ago I watched on BBC Robert Peston's documentary, analysis of the current crisis "The Party is Over, How the West Went Bust"... www.youtube.com/watch?v=2LZozsLYHD4 (well worth watching) shedding light on German economy, finance, attitude to debt, savings, manufacturing and investment in manufacturing growth, unlike in the UK where so much focus is on banking and growth from papers (derivatives of derivatives of derivatives). Therefore, I would not write off Germans and their "manufacturing" of European project, they take long view and are certainly willing to invest long term. If a small country, like Croatia, can even start deluding itself about realistic "choice" in today's world, than I would any time choose anything that Germany manufactures, rather than British or American, latter one has no even mathematical chances of getting out of financial mess they are in, they are buying time - Iran is next. British, now that they have excluded themselves from Europe, will undoubtedly be more than trigger happy to kiss some more of US backside, providing them with some footsoldiers and taxpayers money in "saving the world".
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Post by ray51 on Dec 12, 2011 13:03:32 GMT 1
Secondly, let's see what will isolation bring to the UK, after Cameron's performance last week. To the best of my knowldge , the expulsion of U.K. from the EU has not yet been mooted , nor tabled . If Merkozy came up with such a motion , this would , without doubt be summarily agreed with and rubber-stamped , by the marionettes from 20-odd other member-states . In such a case , the likelihood is that U.K. would , by default , probably become a member of EEA , like Norway , Liechtenstein and Iceland . Bottom line : same guarantees of free movements of bodies , goods , services and capital , but much less onerous duties and costs than the EU-membership . Not too bad alltogether , then ? Regarding "isolation" ; U.K. always was isolated in any case ! Except for dyed-in-the-wool Blairites/New labour and some Scots , most Brits find it hard to empathise with the idea of Federal Sot Republic of EU-rope , governed by Franco-German axis and their helpful , obliging mates in Brussels and Rome . And any number of other member-countries , which are not now de iure "isolated" ? Of the more respectful ones , one never hears of anything impacting on the EU coming from Sweden , the Netherlands , Denmark , Austria , SLovenia... As if anyone at the top of EU cares for what Estonians , Maltese , Rumanians , Greeks , Lithuanians , Slovaks , Hungarians , Polish and a dozen others think or have to say ? They are just there , to form , complete and nod a choir of approval , to what was pre-decided on the top and then put forward to them for automatic acceptance , by the likes of Van Rompuy , Barroso , Rehn and their ever-growing brigades of highly-remunerated bureaucrats .
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Post by eucomis1 on Dec 12, 2011 13:43:25 GMT 1
I think I'm beginning to see from ray51's post why he might be feeling isolated....
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